Mainstreet polling, April 13
| Party Name | Seats (Current) | Seats Change | Percentage (Current) | Percentage Change | Majority Probability | Minority Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 183 | +23 | 43.6% | +11% | 70.5% | 15.7% |
| Conservative | 138 | +19 | 43.2% | +9.5% | 5.7% | 8.1% |
| Bloc | 14 | -18 | 3.5% | -4.1% | 0% | 0% |
| New Democrat | 6 | -19 | 6.2% | -11.6% | N/A | N/A |
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Well this spike doesn't look too good. I can't see confirmation for such a bump in Nanos. I hope it's a fluke. 😂
Could it be from the liberal operatives planting story?
Like what?
(I'm really just curious, not challenging you or anything.)
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-oppo-csfn-1.7509217
Though is far too early for any backlash to show up in polls.
EDIT a word
On Friday night, in two Ottawa bars, campaign workers shared how the party was behind this move — two Liberal Party staffers attended the conference intended for conservatives and placed these buttons in areas where attendees would find them.
At the pub D'Arcy McGee's near Parliament Hill, a number of Liberal war room staffers met for drinks on the far side of the bar. This journalist joined one of them for a quick conversation, but heard another staffer, who had previously identified himself as being involved in opposition research, describing how he and a colleague planted the buttons.
🤦 🤦♀️🤦♂️
But yeah, the story is from April 13th so it's unlikely to be reflected in the polls. Plus given the attitudes at the moment, I doubt people who'd vote Lib would decide not to vote Lib based on this.
Thanks. I wasn't aware of that.
Would that really shift the polls by that much though?
¯(ツ)/¯ Personally, I don't think it'll have a large impact, but I honestly don't know.
I believe this won't hurt as much as people assume. It might actually break through conservative users' media bubble a little bit because their algorithm is going to push this story down their throats as rage-bait but it also brings to their attention the real divide in the Conservative party currently. Something that might not have reached their eyes otherwise.
It's probably a dumb mistake by overly eager staffers, but I can't shake the feeling that this is somewhat calculated.
They did a dirty trick to make the cons look worse. CBC has reported on it.
And apparently yapped about it in a pub... amateur hour. 🤡
I can just imagine PP's wailing about this.
check cbc