11mo ago

This Year’s Iowa Caucus Is On Track For Lowest Turnout Since 2000

www.nytimes.com This Year’s Iowa Caucus Is On Track For Lowest Turnout Since 2000

Voters at some locations overcame the extreme weather to make strong showings, but turnout overall fell short of expectations.

A New York Times analysis of the results released so far estimated that the final turnout will be around 110,000 voters. As of 11:30 pm Eastern time, about 105,000 votes had been recorded. That would be significantly below the 187,000 Republicans who voted in 2016, which was a record turnout. About 122,000 voted in 2012, 118,000 in 2008 and about 87,000 in 2000.

The Trump train is losing major steam. Only 18% of the GOP turned out to vote yesterday. Trump only got half of that GOP vote lol.

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I mean, if you live in Iowa, cold weather this time of year is the norm. I think all the 'ooh nobody showed because of dreaded coldness's', is pretty much an excuse. Even republicans are tired of this shit show, and that's why they didn't bother to drive across town to caucus. They'd drive across the state for a decent TacoPizza (tm). smh
- There's cold and then there's cold. 20°F/-6°c is uncomfortable and requires proper attire. -5°F/-15°C is seriously dangerous to go out in regardless of what you're wearing.
  
  I would say that’s still a manageable temp to go vote in, if you’re spending little time out of doors, rather going house-to-car-to-building. Any significant requirement of time spent outside, particularly idling in line; changes that.
  That answer is also changed depending on the state of the ground/roads. Is there a significant amount of ice about? In neighbouring Wisconsin there is.
  Also, a lot of voters, particularly conservative ones, are older, and the perils of the ice and deep cold are greater for them, and likely considered as such.
  So… yeah. I can see weather dampening turnout at this quite a bit.
  
  Is there a significant amount of ice about?
  About 23.5" of snow has fallen between now and the previous weekend. Travel is returning to winter normal, but is definitely still difficult. Last time I participated (previous election) the line for the sign-in/registration table went outside and I had to wait ~5 min. to get inside.
  
  Now I'm imagining some kind of Green Boots scenario where voters slowly file past one of their own who couldn't handle the cold, and whose body it is too dangerous to retrieve.
  
  -5°F/-15°C is seriously dangerous to go out in regardless of what you're wearing.
  That's funny
  
  I'd say that line starts at -25 / -30°C not -15. Unless you literally don't have any proper winter clothes.
- It's cold as hell and basically everyone expected Trump to win in a landslide. So not exactly surprising that people didn't prioritize showing up for caucuses. They're not a small commitment.

17 comments