Now D&D's 2024 rules revamp is almost finished, I've been visited by the ghosts of TTRPG past, present, and future to help me predict the next 5-10 years
Now D&D's 2024 rules revamp is almost finished, I've been visited by the ghosts of TTRPG past, present, and future to help me predict the next 5-10 years
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I don't think this very hard to predict. Everyone is going to slowly move into 5.5 edition over the next few years as they start new campaigns since there are good quality of life increases in this edition in the exact same way no one plays 3.0 but only 3.5. Hasbro is going to try some stupid digital only / VTT which is going to be pushed really hard. Its going to be a mild success but Roll20 and cheaper / freer VTTs still exist it won't make as much money as expected. Hasbro is going to then make some A.I. DM which is going to be awful despite spending millions in development and marketing. No one will want to use it because it defeats the whole purpose of DnD and will be too expensive. There will then be some crisis about the DnD brand when Hasbro can't make enough money off of it but it won't affect people who have physical books who will continue to play the same way they always have. I am calling it now
I just wonder if maybe another big stumble from Hasbro will cause the rise of a new system.
Paizo is relatively tiny compared to D&D and especially compared to Hasbro, but Pathfinder gained a pretty sizeable following mostly from word of mouth, and this is basically before social media. One of the biggest "promoters" of D&D now is Critical Role, and before the stream started their home game was a Pathfinder game. But, CR is now also streaming their own game system called Daggerheart in addition to their main D&D campaign. I have a sense that many other D&D streamers have a "plan B" game ready in case Hasbro steps over the line again.
An interesting twist to all this is that you can't copyright rules or stat blocks. That severely limits the kinds of "moats" that Hasbro can put up to prevent competition.
Anyhow, I think you're overall right. I know Hasbro is going to push an exclusive VTT, and it's just a matter of time before they try to push a LLM DM.
I do think another system has a chance of becoming popular but I would guess it would be a large second after DnD with lots of splintering. I LOVE Paizo and Pathfinder. Free online searchable rules are amazing and no one plays 3.5e when pathfinder 1 exists since its just a straight upgrade. That being said both Pathfinder editions are still super crunchy, math heavy and require research to make a playable character. Its still called Mathfinder for a reasons so there is a limit to its userbase.
That being said I know there will be plenty of Plan B and other systems waiting for when DnD really messes up. You can see that with the OGL problems where tons of new content was created especially since you can't copyright rules or stat blocks. I think the ORC will end up being a longer term stabilizing and creative force for TTRPG. But DnD will still be here because its basically a synonym for TTRPGs at this point.
I think what might be different this time is influencers. If Critical Role abandoned D&D completely, I think they'd probably stay popular and whatever system they switched to would get a lot of attention. I also think that they'd be likely to use a system that isn't math heavy, and allows for a lot of role playing and acting.
The problem would probably be splintering. But, if a tiny company like Paizo made such a big impact on the D&D ecosystem with virtually no ad money back in the 3.5 days, just imagine what could happen today when so many D&D influencers exist. If they worked together on something, it could be a major change to the D&D ecosystem.
For sure. I think if some of the big streamers move to their own systems that would have some big blows. I haven't used Critical Roles new systems but I assume they could get a big switch over if they push it hard
I haven’t used Critical Roles new systems but I assume they could get a big switch over if they push it hard
It's launching sometime in 2025, so we'll see how hard they push it when it's ready. So far, they've only hinted at it. I don't know if they'd want to do this, but they could also try to convince other smaller (but still big) streamers to use it too. There are some streamers they're pretty close with (the Dropout guys for example) and others who they're on friendly terms with (like Penny Arcade's guys).
If WotC / Hasbro wanted to mount a charm offensive to get people to keep using D&D, I don't know how influential they are. Other than Chris Perkins, I can't think of any well known D&D employees at all.
Chris Perkins is retiring I think. I used to watch DnD official interviews and chats for a while while Todd Kendrick did their interviews for DnDBeyonds social team. He was awesome but I think they stopped doing them. Jeremy Crawford is there head of rules who I really like but others are not a fan. ( I think it's something to do with his unofficial ruling via Twitter IDK.) I have stopped post OGL nonsense and when Todd was let go / the killed his interview show.
You are right that with some social pressure a CR system could pull people off. I'm sure the DnD team are trying to keep the big streamers happy. Paizo before they did pathfinder was the publisher of the official DnD magazine before that was killed / brought in house. So it can be done