It's more like "trick or treat" vs "candy or we egg this joint".
The one is social accepted, polite, and doesn't overtly state an intention to harm but it does imply it. The other is exactly the same, but it's direct, no implication, just one or the other.
Another example would be "you gotta pay us for protection, you wouldn't want anything to happen while you're here." Vs. " Pay up or we cut you".
Probably the second (unless it's something as common as trick or treat) as the implication may not hit me until later. You also have to judge the likelihood of follow thru- like when a kid get threatened with forever grounding.