6d ago

Happy New Year, the debt limit is here. Get ready for an all-out war over it.

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On one hand, I would like the first thing Trump does when he gets back into office to be to default and lead America into years of economic downturn.
On the other hand, I don't want to live through YET another economic downturn.
On the practical side of things, their is enough Democrats and a handful of Republicans in the house and senate that will vote for anything that raises the debt limit to get it passed - the only barrier is scheduling a vote in the house. When democrats only will vote for a democratic speaker and republicans can only loose 3 votes off of a majority and recall with 1 vote, the needed vote to pass the house becomes 436-2.
- Going backwards. House rules have been changed and it takes more than one member to bring a motion to Vacate.
  Trump is today supporting Johnson so maybe he'll be reelected speaker.
  I don't know what Democrats will do, but they won't open the debt limit to unlimit debt as Trump wants.
- We’re going into an economic downturn regardless of who holds the political football
  
  How so?
  
  Just observations based on everyday life. I work in an industry that IMO acts as a canary in the coal mine for all sorts of broader societal issues. People aren’t spending money like they did even last year. And these are people with money.
  
  I do wonder if we are not in a stock and crypto bubble right now, at least.
  If donvict does end up taxing everyone via regressive taxes, I could see a gigantic pullback on consumer spending. I would not be surprised if donvict throws tantrums/makes threats (with his followers actually making them literal death threats) against the Fed until they lower rates so that another sugar high starts, at least for the "right" people.
  
  Yeah idk. I work in tourism (skiing) that’s mainly for wealthy people who don’t blink at paying $8.50USD for a fucking Gatorade. That same Gatorade at the store would cost ~$2-3 as a single, or even less as part of a pack.
  And yeah, it’s a captive audience like a baseball game, but even still, $8.50 for a fucking gatorade?! I think even the well off are tired of being fleeced.
  Business is way down. Occupancy at my workplace is like 60% rn when it should be 90+ as all the school kids are out this week. The ski trails aren’t crowded, normally the beginner slopes are a zoo but it just looks like a mild Saturday rather than a holiday week. It’s unsettling since my job depends on tips if we don’t have business I don’t have $. Some of the pass products are blacked out for this week because of overcrowding but it doesn’t seem necessary.
  I wonder if rich people are taking their money elsewhere (a ski vacation, with everything included even airfare, is way cheaper in Europe than the US without airfare and the quality is way better). Or if they’re nervous and just not spending it. Is it the administration change? Are they going to the beach instead? Idk. I’m nervous though. I have a lot of expenses coming up and I’m counting on my $ coming in after having a very difficult year in my personal life caring for a parent and taking a massive financial and mental health hit.

30 comments