Copying the linked thread here (cuz I stuffed it up):
So the basic story would be that mastodon's dominance is pretty entrenched and the "migration" event is mostly "over" (whatever other "events" are on their way)
But I wonder about the details of the firefish moment
I think it revealed that there are/were plenty interested in novel & different platforms. We're novelty seekers after all right. Generally, I'd wager any new platform needs some degree of novelty to "make it".
Further, its collapse showed how hard creating a new platform is.
2/
Firefish did well at presenting itself as "professional", capable and rich. But these were over-promises, and despite a number of people being involved or contributing, a good deal of user enthusiasm, the whole thing fell into a heap.
And that's the bit that concerns me. How many people/teams are there both capable and willing to put up a good, successful and sustainable platform?
The #firefish lesson may be that the fediverse just hasn't attracted a healthy building culture/personnel.
3/3
The problem is that Misskey code is bad. This is the main reason the forks exist at all.
Iceshrimp is rewriting from scratch in C# and it's my main hope for the *keys.
And yeah - a lot of fedi is built on spur of the moment inspiration without much planning on the long term. Sometimes it works out (like pixelfeed and the other related projects) and sometimes the passion of one (or small group) of devs just isn't enough.
Lemmy is pretty good example (from the other side of the scale) as well - we're at version 0.18.4 - and the devs are pretty hostile.