1mo ago

Logic

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I wonder: would that region of the world have reached some sort of equilibrium if the rest of the world didn’t constantly fuck with them, or would it just be a different kind of shitshow?
- Almost certainly the former. Same with Africa.
  Almost all major conflicts and broken political situations can be traced back to colonialism and/or organized religion.
  
  Almost all major conflicts and broken political situations can be traced back to colonialism and/or organized religion.
  The world was a peaceful paradise before colonialism
  
  people who has nothing to say, and uses emojis like this one are the worst
- Everything improving for the better is part of that "equilibrium." Peace and stability improves education which just makes everything better over time.
  When Taliban first took over Afghanistan they had banned women from attending highschool. They later opened up "training courses" with same curricilum as highschools that women are allowed to attend.
  Progress is slow, but the many economic sanctions placed on the country doesn't help.
  Overall situation is still extremely bad there but the reason Taliban got to run that country in the first place is two centuries of imperialism (The British) so more of it isn't gonna help.
- As with other regions, the wars between neighbouring(ish) countries subside with cultural & economic development - if the countries (ever) get to that point (cross several big thresholds). And we don't even have enough data to verify if this is even actually true.
  But like Europe, constant warring for millennia up until 19th century, then sure, two really big wars, but you could already see how culture & economy of the masses shifted & favoured peace over war ("even with the stinking neighbours who we are racist towards"), it became harder to entice wars and/or to convince people we need a war with a neighbour.
  I feel like this sort of rule of majority (in practice) & low scarcity is the natural equilibrium where huge efforts for maintaining peace aren't required.
  \ (Even both WW were because of this equilibrium shifted massively into huge inequalities.)
  African countries (so lower industrial development & big inequalities even on small scales bcs scarcity for basics, like food & life opportunities, exaggerates those) see constant proper wars (1 on 1 skirmishes between two countries or even regions), but since mass starvation became a thing of the past, so did the fighting become less intense.
  \ (Africa is huge tho, generalisations like this aren't representative of actual issues.)
  With that I think Middle East would definitely be a much more peaceful place without massive colonialist fuckery over the centuries, or at least without Russia & USA (which covers establishing Israel). Longer lasting stable culture & increasing trade dependency & prosperity + no foreigners financing radical terrorist groups (which comparatively quickly become the dominant power by sheer asset value), yes, I think it would be a much better place & wars a lot shorter.
  Now, imagine that Middle East but if the world was already off of fossil fuels for the last century (so less inequality between countries).
  \ Maybe a great (and accessible) active cultural hub between Europe & India?
  
  I feel like without oil the middle East would be like northern Africa. No real natural resources to kickstart an economy leading to seemingly perpetual poverty.
  
  Northern African countries are among the most developed on the continent, what are you talking about?
  Also Algeria had to fight a century and the last two decades of it in a genocidal war waged against it by the french colonial empire that did the same settler colonial shit Israel is doing now.
  
  Africa already had significant ancient civilisations before, the last century or so (when even advanced countries finally mostly ditch what we would see as poverty, like England) it was perpetually fubared by European nations, like literal atrocities we still don't talk about.
  Also Africa is very rich in resources. After all, that's why every advanced nation with two extra cents invaded & pillaged it.
- The area has a deep and rich history, but also a violent one. Countless of peoples have been actually genocided (as in: nothing remains of them) there several centuries before rest of the world had civilization and therefore any means of manipulating them.
  European colonialism lasted roughly during years 1400-2000. A significant time, but also significantly shorter than the history of Middle East.
- Mmm - I think for a particular definition of equilibrium, yes. That definition might be pretty horrible though. And it's a moot point either way.
- Why do you act like it was aliens coming from space? It was just humans doing what they've always done. Do you think they didnt know what war was? They had been warring for millennia with other people from Europe, Asia and Africa.
  
  I wouldn't think of it as somehow absolving people in the region from wanting to make this stuff happen, but without the resources and support from outside, they might be a bit more restrained by necessity/unable to inflict quite the scale of disasters.
  Like how North Korea would have probably started some shit but they can't because they don't have anyone willing to boost their military capability to the requisite level. Meanwhile every player in the middle east has some bigger country happy to pump up their military resources while simultaneously tending to distance themselves from the result because a proxy war is safer than direct conflict.
  
  Without the resources from the outside they would probably crackdown on dissent until the population hit tipping point. Outside influence helps people hit the tipping point earlier and turns the balance a little bit more in their favour. Rebel groups are fighting against legit armies they need equipment to even stand a chance.
  North Korea has China and russia and there is a ton of tension and close calls. War has popped off before and the US helped and things went well, Korea is doing alright.
  Iran has russia and China, there really are very few counties without any support.

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