9mo ago

Bernstein Posits That A 10 Percent Baseline US Tariff On Raw Semiconductors Is "Not Going To Do All That Much," But PCs, Servers, And Smartphones Are About To Get Pricier By ~40 Percent

wccftech.com Trump's Liberation Day: Bernstein Posits That A 10 Percent Baseline US Tariff On Raw Semiconductors Is "Not Going To Do All That Much," But PCs, Servers, And Smartphones Are About To Get Pricier By ~40 Percent

President Trump's "Liberation Day" has come and gone, and markets around the globe are predictably reeling from the impact.

Trump's Liberation Day: Bernstein Posits That A 10 Percent Baseline US Tariff On Raw Semiconductors Is "Not Going To Do All That Much," But PCs, Servers, And Smartphones Are About To Get Pricier By ~40 Percent

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How surprising is this really, considering we're still paying COVID-inflated prices for most things after COVID came and went, and was gone, and is still gone, and it's a couple years later and it's fucking gone.
- Inflation from the Fed helicoptering money around was probably the most predicted thing that's happened in the last 50 years. It should have surprised literally no one.
  It's also no surprise that it hasn't gone away. That's called deflation and every central banker on the planet would rather be eviscerated with a rusty spoon than allow deflation to happen.
  
  Except that's not what happened, companies used the slowdowns in shipping from Covid shutdowns as an excuse to raise prices, then never lowered them. This isn't inflation, this was intentionally planned, don't belive me? Listen to their fucking earnings calls specifically saying it out loud.
  
  Companies deciding to raise prices (for any reason — justified or not) is what inflation is made of.
  Inflation just means “prices went up.”
  
  That is an extremely simplified take of what inflation is.
  Here's a fun example as to why just saying "inflation means prices go up" doesn't make sense, what happens when a group of companies conspire to raise prices simultaneously? Is that inflation or is that price fixing? https://www.propublica.org/article/yieldstar-rent-increase-realpage-rent
  
  I’m not saying “inflation means prices go up” I’m saying “inflation means prices went up”. There can be many things that cause prices to go up, inflation is one result of any such cause and of course then causes many things itself including further inflation.
  In your scenario that’s inflation caused by price fixing. You seem to be saying these things are mutually exclusive but I don’t understand why you would say that.
  
  I suppose my point is if we put any cause of rising prices under the "inflation" umbrella, it gives people the wrong idea as to the cause. Rather then just specifying what is causing prices to rise, people just say "it's inflation."
  
  Inflation is defined as the increase of prices over a set period of time. It is in itself nothing, doesn't do anything and its singular purpose is to be able to say how much something costs today compared to yesteryear. If the price difference depends on a supply chock (something that affects the ability to produce, like a shortage), or a demand chock (suddenly everbody rejects Tesla) is all the same, it results in a price change and can therefore be compared using the measure inflation.
  
  Fair enough
  
  Look at the money supply compared to inflation. Inflation went up due to supply shocks, central banks printed money as supply shocks eased, and we're left with stable, higher prices.
  If central banks didn't print money during the inflationary period, we would've seen a period of deflation as prices returned roughly to where they were.
  Seriously, look up the numbers. Here's UK money supply, for example.

69 comments