Bulletins and News Discussion from October 28th to November 3rd, 2024 - LDP Falls Flat / Yet Neoliberalism / Rampages Onward - COTW: Japan

Much of the analysis below is sourced from Michael Roberts' great website.

Japan's ruling parliamentary coalition, consisting of the LDP (purple) and it's junior coalition partner Komeito (in light pink) have lost their ruling majority. They have ruled post-war Japan for almost its entire history. The LDP is currently led by Shigeru Ishiba after Kishida stood down due to a corruption scandal, and ties to the Unification Church.

While geopolitical factors (over the cold war between the US and China, etc) may have played a role, by far the biggest reason for this result in the poor economic conditions over the past few years. Inflation has risen and real wages have fallen, with little relief for the working class via things like tax reductions. While inequality in Japan is not as extreme as in America, it is still profound, with the top 10% possessing 60% of the wealth, while the bottom 50% possess just 5%.

Shinzo Abe previously tried to boost economic performance through monetary easing and fiscal deficits, while Kishida ran on a "new capitalism" which rejected Abe's neoliberalism and promised to reduce inequality. Nothing substantial has resulted from all this, however, other than increasing corporate wealth. Innovation continues to fall, and domestic profitability is low, resulting in decreasing investment at home by Japanese corporations. Labour productivity growth has only slightly picked up since the mid-2000s and is falling again. The rate of profit has fallen by half since the 1960s, and Japan has been in a manufacturing recession - or very close to it - since late 2022. In essence: there is no choice but between stagnation or decline.

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While I'm a bit late to comment on this, I am only commenting on things I can actually read first hand given what happened last week. There has been another document leak, this time an apparent draft about a ceasefire deal in South Lebanon. I'll post it below. My opinion: this is a placeholder document that represents what Israel/US and Lebanese government want, it does not reflect the current state of any negotiations/potential negotiations, I repeat: it is merely a placeholder from the 26th of October stating the intentions of the US/Israel and the Lebanese government. Don't believe any claims that state that Hezbollah has agreed to this, that's not what this document is.
- LMFAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAO! They are going to ask not just for a cessation of hostilities, but for Hezbollah to completely disarm for good. Yeah, good fuckin' luck with that, you dumb shits.
- seems like get civil war recipe
  
  If Hezbollah rejects a similar agreement to this, and the US and Lebanon decide to enforce it anyway, then yes. But that is very unlikely to happen. The only way the Lebanese government would enforce such an agreement is if Hezbollah withdraws from the area. The Lebanese Army is not going to go into the South to fight Hezbollah. Which is why I state that this leak is just a statement of what the US, Israel and the Lebanese government want, and does not reflect the reality of any potential negotiations.
  
  I imagine at least a third of the army would defect if they tried this.
- So the plan is basically "how about you do this instead of us"?
  
  The plan is: Hezbollah agrees to this and withdraws in exchange for a ceasefire, the Lebanese army enters and carries out the UN resolution from the 2006 conflict. There's not supposed to be any actual fighting between sides, as far as I understand it. Also Israel has 7 days to carry out their own DMZ operations before that happens.
  It's a wishlist of what the US wants, basically.
  
  They keep doing this, they keep asking for stuff that they're not going to get. They did this (and still do this) with Russia and Ukraine, now they're going to do it with Hezbollah and Lebanon.
  I honestly think no one running the US actually knows how to conduct foreign policy using diplomacy. These aren't resolutions, they're a gift list for Santa.
  
  US foreign policy negotiations, a summary:
  "We get everything we want, and you get nothing, you got that? Capiche. What if you say no and continue fighting? Well fuck you and see you again next day/week/month/year when we're in the exact same situation, except thousands more are dead!"

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