China's coal power on the rise again in 2026, reversing first-in-a-decade decline

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/55398347

• Coal-fired power generation seen rising by 1.5-2% this year
• Power sector coal consumption forecast to increase 3%
• El Nino to boost air conditioning, potentially cut hydropower
• China's power demand to grow by 5% again this year

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The world's biggest power consumer increased its usage of thermal power by 3.4% year-on-year in the first five months of the year to 2.53 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh), statistics bureau data showed last week. Thermal power is mostly from coal with a small amount from gas.

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Consultancies S&P Global Energy ​and Wood Mackenzie expect coal-fired power to rebound by 1.5% to 2%, respectively, to 5.4 trillion kWh in 2026 from last year while ​data analytics firm Kpler expects coal consumed in the power sector to rise some 3% to 2.7 billion tons.

As China ⁠cuts liquefied natural gas imports to mitigate higher costs from the Strait of Hormuz blockade, S&P forecasts that gas power will fall 12% to 300 ​billion kWh, adding another source of incremental demand as coal rises to fill the gap.

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Renewable energy output growth has slowed year-on-year in 2026 because of weak wind generation, low solar utilisation in China's western provinces, and a slowdown in new installations compared with 2025, [think tank Ember ananlyst Matt] Owen said.

And ⁠since China continues ​to build new coal plants every year, it is effectively "locking in" a certain amount of ​power generation from coal, said Qi Qin, an analyst at the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

"Many coal power plants rely on medium- and long-term contracts to secure high ​annual generation volumes, which makes it harder for renewables to displace coal," Qin said.

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